CJSteele.com – eBook

Click Image To Visit Site predicting and mitigating the effects of uncertainty and random variability on technical and commercial systems

"This e-book captures all I know about developing an intuitive probabilistic design ability. One that will let you naturally deign robust, high quality and low risk systems of any type."



If you work in a role where you need to increase quality or reduce risk and you are finding that the current methods just aren’t giving you the results that you need, then you’re about to learn the intuitive and simple way to combine robust design methods with what you already know to design the highest quality and low risk systems possible

So many of us work in areas where random variability is the major source of the issues we need to deal with: quality, risk, reliability. But how many of us really understand the key to analysing random variability: Probabilistic Design?

I am sure that you have heard of Six Sigma, Value Analysis, Value Engineering, Quality Circles, Quality Function Deployment, Design of Experiments, Failure Mode and Effects Analysis, Fault Trees, SWOT, Facilitated Risk Analysis Process and many other similar systems that have been and gone.

But let me ask you this. Do you really understand how these systems actually optimise so that the negative effects of random variability are reduced or eliminated?

How can it be that we all spend so much time working in an area imbedded in probabilistic issues and yet we know next to nothing about probabilistic design? Well I think it’s because of the influence of Taguchi and the current domination of quality and risk by statisticians. My PhD supervisor told me about an argument that he had with Taguchi over the application of basic probabilistic methods: Taguchi rejected anything that wasn’t experimentally based. Statisticians too also rely almost solely on an experimental approach. On the other hand, probabilistic design uses your knowledge and expertise so that you can quickly and easily design robust systems without the need for time consuming experiments. If you have seen the about page, then you know how much time and effort I have put into understanding the application of probabilistic design to robustification and how important I think they both are to someone like you.

I have been researching, teaching and applying probabilistic design for years, and during this time I have learnt three things:

Applying probabilistic methods can often break your focus on designing or planning, and this makes it hard to properly integrate them into your work.

When you use them enough and learn them in the right way, probabilistic methods become intuitive. They are then easy to apply, and you can then easily integrate them with your other skills and the rest of your knowledge.

No one seems to explain or teach probabilistic methods in a way that quickly lets people apply them intuitively. I actually believe that no one has ever even thought to do this.

Because I know how powerful probabilistic methods are and how important they are… Read more…